Hawthorne 20 April 2010
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Hard to rule any of these out in a trappy contest but ISLAND MISS has just missed out twice recently in similar contests and earns a narrow vote tonight. She's been tapped for speed at the finish in those races and this step-up in trip should boost her chances. Michalina was third behind the selection last time but has more than a length to make up while Songanddancelady was a well-beaten second in a similar contest over a route here but is more of a threat back at a sprint trip.
This should go the way of WAKEUPBRANDON, who has gone close three times now in valuable allowance races over 6f here and landed a $17.5k claimer five starts ago. He should be suited by this slight drop in trip and can make it fourth-time lucky. Cool C Note was a good third in a $25k claimer at Oaklawn Park last month - his first start for eight months - and he looks the danger while Stratos might not need to raise his game too much to take a hand in the finish.
It's hard to see any of these getting the better of MS MANIPULATOR. After scoring in this grade over a route here three starts ago, she's won and come third in two $14k claimers over the same track and trip and should take all the beating tonight. Hanna From Savanah has claims on her best efforts but looks out of sorts and Wildwood Double and Stormy April, second and third in this grade here last time, make more appeal.
In a very tight contest, it may pay to side with MONHOCRACY, who is running more consistently than his rivals. A winner and a close second over C&D in this grade in his last two starts, he should just have the edge. Lucky Merlot won in this grade last time and might prove the danger but Irish Ruffian and Acatalast have also landed similar contests recently and can't be ruled out.
GOALTOGOAL is the confident choice here. The winner of a $45k allowance race over this trip at Fair Grounds at the start of the year, he has continued to run well in better races than this and should take all the beating dropped in class tonight. Homeric just missed out in this grade over this C&D last time and looks the one for the exacta while Apache Creek and Airtight should be thereabouts.
SOUTHERN WONDER never got into the race last time when a well-beaten seventh in a slightly better contest over a route here. But if she can be forgiven that effort, she should prove too good for these rivals on previous form, including two close seconds here, finishing three lengths clear of Three Tickets the second time. The latter should occupy the runners-up spot tonight while Strong Stag and Link To My Heart might not be too far away.
KITTY CITY finished runner-up over this C&D last month and a reproduction of that effort might be enough to see her go one better this time round. Spectacular Sparkle finished a place behind her on that occasion and could pose the main danger here ahead of Dama Dama who is capable at this level on her day.
SILVER AGE made a highly encouraging debut over this C&D earlier this month, finishing runner-up, and she is sure to have come on a good deal for that experience so she can go one better this time. I See Mambo rates an obvious danger on form whilst Rime Ice could also be in the shake-up.
This can go to SWORD AND SHIELD who has been performing consistently well of late, including when second over an extended mile here earlier this month. Joni's Justice takes a slight drop in grade and could take a hand along with Stanley G. who is capable of better than he showed last time.
