Meydan 08 February 2018
Instructions
Please click on the “View Full Racecard & Odds” button to get the full racecard information.
This looks to be a a two-horse race between Winter Lightning and RAYYA based on their meeting in the trial for this race over 7f here last month. The former came out on top on that occasion by a nose but there are reasons to believe that may not be the case today. Firstly, Rayya had gone hard early on from stall one on that occasion and Winter Lightning was able to take a lead and pounce in the straight. That said, Doug Watson's filly was coming back at the finish and was back in front just after the line. She is now drawn in three and with her main rival a place inside her it could mean that roles are reversed and Winter Lightning has to use up more energy early on to get the rail. Secondly, breeding suggests that Rayya may improve for the extra furlong today given that she is a half-sister to a 1m4f US Grade 3 winner and most of her family were at their best over at least 1m. Winter Lightning has to be given the utmost respect but there should not be much between the pair in the betting. The rest all have plenty to find with Expressiy and Flora Sandes the pick of them.
WINTER LIGHTNING showed plenty of resolution, on her return from 3 months off, when just seeing off Rayya here last month and should have more to give yet. She can come out on top once more. Rayya is also open to further improvement and is likely to give the selection plenty to think about again. Flora Sandes is next best.
SEA SKIMMER is one of the few horses who can run very well on the Meydan dirt having been held up. That was highlighted when he was a fast-finishing second over 1m here a couple of weeks ago and that performance suggested that the extra trip today should be ideal for him. Ormindo won at Jebel Ali back in December and he arrives here just 1lb higher the ratings, despite placing in both subsequent starts. Bois De Boulogne clearly needed his first two starts on the dirt but is a player based on his last three efforts, while Mazeed has an each-way chance having finished a place behind the selection last time out. Doug Watson has a very strong hand with Galvanize, Grand Argentier and Storm Belt all in the field. Jockey bookings suggest that Galvanize is the pick of that trio but he ran like a tired horse a fortnight ago and Storm Belt only found the ill-fated Frankyfourfingers too good in a Carnival handicap over C&D two starts ago.
DEHBASHI brings a solid level of consistency to the table and could be the way to go returned to the scene of his last success. Sea Skimmer and Bois De Boulogne both arrive relatively low mileage and could well be the pair to chase the selection home.
Muarrab was not forced to go too hard early on in the Dubawi Stakes over C&D last month but COMICAS still managed to get past the former Golden Shaheen winner in the final furlong. Charlie Appleby's gelding had finished six lengths behind the veteran in December but he needed that run having been off since June. There could be more pace on today with My Catch and Scrutineer likely to give Muarrab a race to the first bend and that should only suit the selection. Reynaldothewizard proved that he still has it when finishing third in the Dubawi but, while he could make the frame once again, it is hard to see him winning this afternoon.
There won't be much between the Dubawi Stakes 1-2-3 again. Charlie Appleby's COMICAS can confirm that form with another success. Veteran Reynaldothewizard might be able to overhaul Muarrab for second this time with the benefit of that reappearance behind him.
It is very hard to oppose HIT THE BID given that handicapper has raised him just 1lb for chasing home the top-class Ertijaal over C&D last month. That rival is close to unbeatable with those conditions and this four-year-old did extremely well to only be beaten by half a length on that occasion. The 1lb increase is quite shocking given that he beat the subsequent Meydan winners Dutch Masterpiece and Jordan Sport by three and a half lengths and a five lengths respectively. A change in the weight-for-age allowances since that race means that he is worse off by 4lb today with Dutch Masterpiece but that should not be enough to reverse that form. Shaf was very disappointing on his Meydan debut but it is too soon to be writing him off, while Polybius could pick up some minor money.
HIT THE BID looks comfortably the most solid option here on the back of a good second in a big-field event over C&D a fortnight ago. Dutch Masterpiece was successful on that same card and a 3 lb rise is unlikely to prevent another bold bid from Jaber Ramadhan's charge, while Eqtiraan has had possible excuses for his 2 runs here recently and could be sharpened up by blinkers.
Heavy Metal will be popular in the market having won the first round of this race over 1m here in January and he will be hard to peg back once again today. That said, the extra distance will stretch his stamina and it should suit THUNDER SNOW more. Godolphin's four-year-old was four and a half lengths behind Heavy Metal on that occasion but the winner got first run on him and he will be suited by a more aggressive ride over this trip. Stall eight may force him to race wide but it does mean that he will be out of the kickback, which suits more patiently ridden runners such as him. North America was back in third on that occasion but his race was over following a slow start and he should give Heavy Metal a race to the first bend from stall four if getting out on terms today. Cosmo Charlie is another who needs to lead to be at his best and that could force a strong early pace, which should suit Second Summer. Last year's Godolphin Mile winner likes to take his time in his races and will pass plenty of these in the straight after they have cried enough. Furia Cruzada beat the aforementioned Second Summer in this race 12 months ago but her most recent form does not inspire much confidence.
HEAVY METAL is proving better than ever at the age of 8, taking his form to another level when winning Round 1 last month, and can prove too strong for Thunder Snow and North America again.
ZAMAN brings solid European juvenile form to the table, having chased home Expert Eye in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in August. That was no fluke based on his run behind Gustav Klimt in the Superlative Stakes and his defeat of the subsequent Prix Morny winner Unfortunately at Pontefract in July. Tangled is only rated 2lb inferior to the selection but his form suggests that gap might be bigger than their marks suggest. The son of Society Rock made the frame in a couple of moderate Group races in the Autumn and he will appreciate the return to turf having hated the dirt in the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial here last month. Roland Rocks ran above expectations to finish second in the first division of that trial but he was over 10 lengths behind the selection at Goodwood. Mutamayel is interesting given that he brings Australian form to the table, while the shortlist is completed by Gotti and Racing Country.
Godolphin's ZAMAN was runner-up at Group 2 level when last seen in August and will likely take a bit of stopping if he can reproduce anything like that level on his Dubai debut. Tangled presumably didn't take to dirt here last time and is expected to fare a lot better back on turf, while Racing Country showed improved form here (dirt) a fortnight ago and is unexposed after only 3 starts.
A very tricky race to close the card and it will be no surprise to see the market dominated by Godolphin. The boys in blue had won eight of the 11 turf Carnival races over seven furlongs or further this year, prior to the start of racing today, and they could add this event to their tally. BLAIR HOUSE appears to be the pick of their runners having only been narrowly denied by Light The Lights over C&D a few weeks ago. A 1lb rise in the ratings for that effort is more than fair an he is entitled to improve for that outing. William Buick rides the selection over Banksea, who also filled the runner-up position last time out. Leshlaa has nearly four lengths to find with the selection and a 2lb swing in the weights may not be enough to reverse that form. Away from Godolphin, the Singaporean-representative Gilt Complex is an interesting raider. The six-year-old beat Elite Excalibur twice late last year and that rival finished second in a handicap here last year off a mark of 108. That form cannot be taken literally but it is a good indicator that Cliff Brown's gelding can go well if taking to these conditions. Earnshaw has been running consistently well in Group/Listed races here since the beginning of 2017 and the switch to handicap company means that he has a solid each-way shout again.
BLAIR HOUSE enhanced his good record fresh when losing out only to a Group horse over C&D last month, and he could easily rate higher this Carnival. Leshlaa, Primero and Banksea all merit plenty of respect.
