Expert Analysis

A major trial for The Derby, won by Golden Horn in 2015 and by Desert Crown in 2022 on their way to success at Epsom, though there have been a few unremarkable winners along the way and this year’s race resulted in something of a bunched finish despite a decent pace and the fastest time in the race on record. That pace was reflected in a 104.8% finishing speed for the winner, and that fast overall time (4.22s quicker than Free Wind’s Middleton success earlier on the card) was in part down to ground that was “firm” judged on the card more widely.

THE FOXES (110 here, 109 previously) emerged on top in quite a close finish (just over 2 lengths between first 5) and is smart despite an unexceptional start to his career and signs of 1 or 2 quirks since. He was held up in touch, made steady headway 2f out, led approaching the final 1f and ran on despite edging right (not for the first time). The relative pace test seemed to suit him at this trip: while he may get 12f, he would not be sure to improve for that trip.

WHITE BIRCH (110 here, 108 previously) seemed well suited by the decent pace on this firmer ground, and could improve again at 12f. He was slowly away and last, niggled along 4f out and coming widest of all before staying on well and just failing.

CONTINUOUS (107 here, 105 previously) did well on what was just his third start (won Curragh maiden and Group 3 at Saint-Cloud previously), possibly open to further improvement on the back of it. He tracked the pace, made an effort 3f out, had a chance under stronger pressure approaching the final 1f then could not quicken. By Heart’s Cry and from the family of Saxon Warrior, 12f promises to suit him.

PASSENGER (107+ here, 90+ previously) shaped well on what was just his second start and could prove the best of these, likely to have won or very nearly have won with a clearer passage at a crucial stage. He tracked the pace travelling well (took short while to settle), got no run over 2f out and again over 1f out, finishing quite well thereafter. He could do with settling a bit better to get 12f, but clearly has at least smart ability.

EPICTETUS(106 here, 111 previously) ran quite close to form but gave the impression an extended 10f stretched his stamina even on ground as firm as this (had looked like winning better than he eventually did at 10f at Epsom the time before). He was held up in mid-to-rear, made promising headway 3f out and had a chance under pressure 1f later, only to weaken inside the final 1f.

KILLYBEGS WARRIOR (100 here and previously) continues to run creditably but to no avail, soon close up, and still in the firing line 2f out, then outpaced.

LIBERTY LANE (97 here and previously) ran as well as could be expected, the narrow leader for a long way, headed well over 1f out then weakening.

DEAR MY FRIEND (97 here, 103 previously) ran just respectably, pushed along briefly to race prominently, one paced after 3f out.

CANBERRA LEGEND (91 here, 103 previously) was always behind and never really going, possibly unsuited by this firmer going.

DANCING MAGIC (0 here, 104 previously) needs to settle better to stay beyond 8f, quickly beaten at the business end here.

FLYING HONOURS (0 here, 108 previously) reportedly finished lame.