Expert Analysis

Visually, a most impressive performance, and it looks good as a result on paper also, but that does not tell the whole story. It was a messy contest for a small field, with the runners quickly splitting into two groups, those drawn 6 to 8 close to the stand rail and the bigger group towards the far side. The latter group led most of the way, but, as the sectionals show, they were going much too fast for the conditions, and they and the near-side group, who came through to dominate, both finished a good deal slower than par, resulting in a remarkably modest time on ground that was predominantly “soft” rather than softer judged on times. That all said, the winner was very good within that context and deserves rating quite highly despite those wider reservations. 

AUGUSTE RODIN (119+2 here, 107 previously) has a big reputation and showed here that it was fully justified with an impressive win visually (if less so in other respects), held up on the stand side before surging to the front there and overall approaching the final 1f as the pace collapsed, ridden for a bit and staying on strongly as he was kept up to his work until near the finish. He is classy but may have problems at a mile as a 3yo unless encountering conditions similar to these, his striding (no higher than 2.28 strides/second and as low as 2.05 here) more what you would look for in a 10f/12f performer, his claims for next year’s Derby seemingly stronger than those for the Guineas. 

EPICTETUS (109 here, 112 previously) ran to a similar level as when beaten (along with Holloway Boy) by now-116-rated Silver Knott the time before, despite things not going entirely his way, tracking the pace, shaken up after 3f out and unable to respond as well as the winner, but running on when forced to check for a few strides then finishing quite well without being knocked about or having a prayer with the one who beat him. He should be at least as good at 10f next year and has possibilities of staying 12f.

HOLLOWAY BOY (104+ here, 109 previously) deserves significant upgrading in one respect, for he was the one of the principals who suffered most for an overly aggressive ride, but he showed a most undesirable aspect of his character at the same time in a first-time visor, coming from rear to lead over 2f out (too soon given how strong the pace had been before that) then hanging badly right and unable to be ridden properly, soon headed and beaten. He is very useful but needs treating with caution after this.

DANCING MAGIC (93 here, 106 previously) was not discredited in the circumstances faced with a stiff task again, and should win at least a listed race when the time comes, close to the overly strong pace on the far side, ridden briefly and unable to go with the eventual third, not unduly knocked about when held. He is a quick strider, and was a shade free here, and is not crying out for further yet.   

SALT LAKE CITY (93 here, 96 previously) had won a maiden at Navan impressively and may yet make into a Group performer, but was quickly put in his place after leading on the stand side (but behind the leaders far side) until over 2f out. He should stay 10f.

CAPTAIN WIERZBA (92 here, 83 previously) was flying high and did not look up to it while advancing his form, travelling comfortably enough on the far side but making no impression when the chips were down (played up in stall).

KING OF STEEL (92 here and previously) remains a useful prospect, running to a similar level as when beating ordinary rivals well on his recent debut and giving the impression the experience was still needed, slowly into his stride, tracking before getting outpaced on the far side and rallying abit at the death. 10f/12f should suit him better.

STORMBUSTER (85+ here, 101 previously) paid for going too fast on the far side, headed and capitulating over 2f out. He had looked useful previously.