Expert Analysis

Royal Ascot 2022 commenced, on good to firm going, with the success of one of the shortest-priced favourites there ever, Baaeed serving up another top-class show. He was not quite at the level he showed when beating the same rival by one and a half lengths further in the Lockinge at Newbury the time before, but was every bit as impressive in terms of sectionals, his final 2f of 23.10s (105.8% finishing speed) the fastest of any horse at this year’s Royal Ascot and for the two previous Royal meetings at which we have comprehensive splits also. As implied by that, the early pace was steady, and the first two deserve credit for coming clear. The first two and Lights On raced towards the centre, with the rest towards the stand side, before merging later on.

BAAEED (123+ here, 126 previously) continues to carry all before him, more than a match for the best European older milers though likely to face sterner opposition from the three-year-olds, the fillies Inspiral and Homeless Songs in particular, hereafter. He tracked the pace going well, was switched and quickened to lead 2f out, then was just pushed out, value for another length or two. A brother by Sea The Stars to Hukum, he should stay beyond 8f but is quite a speedy strider (2.50 strides/second between 3f out and 1f out here) and will not necessarily be better at 10f than he has so far proved to be at 8f, though that is very good indeed!

REAL WORLD (119 here, 118 previously) got a bit closer to Baaeed this time, that in part down to the run of the race but also reflecting well on him as he came clear of the rest, leading the smaller group and overall shortly after halfway, unable to match the winner’s turn of foot 2f out but continuing to run on well. He won at a lesser level at 9f/10f last summer and is worth another try at those trips.

ORDER OF AUSTRALIA (108 here, 115 previously) ran respectably after an absence and in a tongue strap, this likely to do him some good, though he has proved to be vulnerable at the very top level since his Breeders’ Cup Mile win in 2020. He led in his group and overall until shortly after halfway, left behind and tending to go to his right late on.

CHINDIT (103 here, 113 previously) was not asked to lead this time and ran worse rather than better for it, taking a keen hold until outpaced from over 2f out. He is a Group-3-level miler taken overall.

SIR BUSKER (99 here, 110 previously) has not won in two years now, this too tough for him even at his best, and he never looked like getting into it after a slightly slow start.

LIGHTS ON (94 here, 106 previously) was primarily outclassed, taking a keen hold until left behind when things heated up.

ACCIDENTAL AGENT (93 here, 112 previously) won this back in 2018 but is not this calibre nowadays and ran below form even so, slowly away and always behind.