Expert Analysis

Not an easy race to assess, in that it is almost certain that none of Protektorat’s rivals fully gave their running, while time analysis is difficult with this the only three-mile chase of the day and conditions deteriorating. But he was trying a new trip and took to it very well, keeping going (97.7% finishing speed from 3 out) while everything else capitulated on ground that was close to “heavy” by this stage, so crediting him with improvement – quite how much remains to be seen! – seems sensible.

PROTEKTORAT (c164 here, 158 previously) took to the longer trip and testing conditions like a duck to water, apparently putting up a high-class effort, though it is difficult to tell exactly how good this form is with his rivals going to nothing. He tanked along tracking the pace, went second with a circuit to go, led 4 out and was soon in complete control, merely nudged out. His win at this course and second at Cheltenham on his two most recent starts had established him as a solidly 158-rated performer, but was not exactly exposed after just six races over fences going into this. All but one of his wins have been going left-handed, as here.

NATIVE RIVER (c144 here, 170? previously) will be 12 in a few weeks and may well be on the wane, close up/disputing the lead until going on for sure with just over a circuit to run, but headed 4 out and soon done with, holding second as others caved in even more.

SAM BROWN (c118 here, 148 previously) has made it to the track infrequently of late and probably achieved little in finishing third, tracking the pace but in trouble by the end of the back straight and completing in his own time.

THE TWO AMIGOS (c? here, 142 previously) was in last place though in touch when falling at the first on the final circuit on what was his first start since March. He does not hold an entry in the Welsh Grand National, a race in which he was fifth then second in the last two renewals.

SIMPLY THE BETTS (c0 here, 152 previously) was ridden to see out this longer trip but failed, in these conditions at least, making mistakes and left behind from 5 out, behind Sam Brown when pulled up before the last.

TIGER ROLL (c0 here, 157? previously) ran abysmally, soon toiling in rear and pulled up with a circuit to go. There must be a good chance he is not as good as he was, rising 12, despite his Cross Country win at Cheltenham as recently as March.

WISHING AND HOPING (c0 here, 143 previously) had a lot on his plate but might have managed a place on his best form as it happens, helping cut out the early running but well behind when pulled up before 4 out.

IMPERIAL AURA (c0 here, 161? previously), a faller in the Betfair Chase the time before, seemed to remember that experience and made mistakes before being pulled up with more than a circuit to go, only the toiling Tiger Roll behind him by that stage.