Where next for Constitution Hill? A race planner’s view
Now that the dust has settled on the decision to keep Constitution Hill on the Flat, thoughts have very much turned to the question of where to go with him next. Such was the impression that the nine-year-old created on his Flat debut at Southwell that much of the chat thus far has put him on a Group 1 trajectory, but it is worth stepping back from the excitement to take a clinical look at what the coming months might look for him.
Our starting point is to assess how the official handicapper is likely to assess his victory at Southwell. There is plenty of scope for opinions to differ here in terms of how much “value extra” to add and what level to set via the beaten horses. Though, one noteworthy nuance relevant to this case is that, in the main, official handicappers in Britain take a more sympathetic approach in their handicapping of older horses. Just how applicable that will be to this unusual case of a nine-year-old making their Flat debut is open to question, but it is worth bearing in mind.
Personally, I would set the mark for an over/under estimate of the performance rating given by the official handicapper to Constitution Hill for his win at Southwell at 100. This obviously represents a tremendous belated start to his Flat career, but his age and race-hardened status dictates that it would be fanciful to expect substantial run-to-run improvement in the months ahead. Thus, that level does leave him a fair way short of what is required at the higher levels of Flat racing.
The next question to answer is his likely optimum trip. To me, visual and striding analysis leads me to believe that 12f is a good trip for him for now and I’d sooner explore 14f than shorter. I can see why some have suggested that he could cope with an even shorter trip given the strength with which he travelled and the power of his move into contention at the top of the straight at Southwell, but that was his style over hurdles too and it will be an asset for him in stronger company over 12f and potentially 14f.
With regards to his prospects over longer trips than that, there would have to be a worry that he would over-race to his detriment when obliged to go slower in the early stages of staying races. If he is tried over 14f, his tractability at that trip will inform the question of whether longer trips might suit.
In terms of ground, he is a good-moving horse that thrived on good ground over hurdles, but at this hour of his life his connections are likely to be reluctant to run him on firmer summer ground, so that is worth bearing in mind when imagining what his future campaign might look like.
It goes without saying that there are endless options for Constitution Hill, but rather than list them all out, I’m going to give a view on what I think they should do and why.
Much of the talk on this subject thus far has been on the optimistic side of the scale and one hopes that such ambitions are realised in the most glorious way. However, we shouldn’t lose sight of the facts that this is a nine-year-old that is going to be obliged to dive into some very deep waters against much better opposition in the very near future, so it makes sense to make some provisions for what might happen if he can’t quite reach the loftier heights hoped for him straight away.
It is important to note that most of the valuable handicaps in the UK that might be considered for Constitution Hill require three Flat runs for qualification. Thus, rather than wait with what is a fit and fresh Constitution Hill until his first stakes race options come up from the middle of April onwards, I would look to make use of the fact that he is eligible to run in another novice race under a penalty.
What I have in mind is very straightforward, as there is a suitable 12f 4yo+ novice at Kempton on March 25th. This fits in well in terms of the gap since his run at Southwell and it comes on a kind surface that he has worked on multiple times. There will be unlikely to be much in his way in terms of opposition and all being well it would be more like a piece of work than a race that doesn’t require him to repeat the level he showed at Southwell.
Nicky Henderson is also a very vocal advocate for Kempton remaining open, so this might be the perfect way for him to focus attention on that issue by bringing his star to Kempton and inviting London out to enjoy the party on an otherwise unremarkable mid-week slot. The sense of occasion of Southwell will be difficult to rival, but it sounds like a fun night to me!
Crucially, it would serve an important purpose in being a second Flat run towards his qualification for high-class handicaps without any great risk of increasing his rating.
If all goes well, his connections can raise their sights for his third Flat start. There isn’t a Listed race in the UK that would jump out as a suitable next target for him, but the John Porter Stakes (12f 4yo+ Group 3) at Newbury on April 18th has been widely put forward as an attractive option and it certainly makes plenty of sense. It has attracted an average field of eight runners in the last five years and to put the quality of it into context, the average Timeform rating of the first three home in those renewals has been 112.2, 109.8 and 108.6. Note, Constitution Hill was given a Timeform rating of 106P for his win at Southwell.
The John Porter would represent a suitable test of where Constitution Hill sits as a Flat horse. If he goes well, it would open up plenty of options such as the Ormonde Stakes (13.4f 4yo+ Group 2) at Chester on May 8th, the Yorkshire Cup (13.8f 4yo+ Group 2) at York on May 15th, the Aston Stakes (12f 4yo+ Group 3) back at Newbury on May 16th or maybe even the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (15.5f 4yo+ Group 1) at Longchamp on May 21st).
If one dared to dream of a Royal Ascot target, for all the obvious concerns that the ground could be too quick for him there, the Hardwicke Stakes (12f 4yo+ Group 2) on June 20th would be the stakes race that stands out at that meeting.
If he didn’t run as well as hoped in the John Porter, the benefit of having run in the novice race at Kempton will become clear, as his run at Newbury will open up a new array of options in high-class handicaps. The rating of 100 or so that he ran to at Southwell means won’t have to fear the ballot in any of the biggest handicaps in Britain or Ireland.
The likes of the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (12f 3yo+ £120k handicap) at Royal Ascot and the Ebor (14f 4yo+ £500k handicap) at York would be obvious targets, ground permitting. It may not be as prestigious, but I’d also give a mention to the Ragusa Handicap (12f 4yo+ €100k handicap) at the Curragh which immediately follows the Irish Derby on June 28th.
Given that Constitution Hill’s lone trip to Ireland resulted in such disappointment, I have no doubt the Irish racing public would come out in huge numbers to see him once again on one of the biggest days of the Irish Flat season on a day that can usually be relied on to produce a beautiful racing surface.
Longer term, there has been talk of the Melbourne Cup. I would advise caution with this chat. It goes without saying that it would be very exciting, but Constitution Hill running in a Melbourne Cup would be a huge price in my book. Nicky Henderson does have some experience of such a venture, as he sent Forgotten Voice down to Australia in 2013 in the hope of running in the Melbourne Cup, but his fifth-place finish in the Geelong Cup wasn’t enough to get him into the race.
A European-based horse running in the Melbourne Cup has always been a huge challenge between the arduous travel, the toughest quarantine requirements in international racing and what by European standards is often firm ground. It has been made much more difficult since the implementation of what are by far the strictest veterinary protocols in international racing since 2021 which has resulted in a substantial reduction in European participation since. So, while it is a fun thought, I find it very difficult to envisage Constitution Hill’s connections submitting him to such a process at this hour of his life.
Whatever comes next, I have to say that in my opinion the connections of Constitution Hill have done the right thing by keeping him on the Flat. I have heard and read comment suggesting that this was a case of them giving into pressure from anti-racing forces and a victory of wokeness etc, but I couldn’t disagree more.
The horse has for whatever reason developed a serious problem with jumping. To stubbornly send him back over hurdles in spite of the clear evidence of a jumping issue would have been in major danger of crossing to the wrong side of the line of acceptable risk that we seek to set in National Hunt racing. Common sense has prevailed. Let the circus roll on!
