Meydan 05 February 2015
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RAAZIQ holds outstanding form claims and ran well on his return from a lengthy break over an inadequate trip last time. With that run behind him, he ought to be tough to beat back up in trip. Ghadeer poses the greatest threat to the selection, with Nymphea Du Paon and Haanoof entitled to need this after lengthy absences.
Dark Emerald caught the eye when flashing home over a mile here three weeks, but he now drops back to 6f for the first time since he was a juvenile, a move which isn't certain to suit. Preference is for AJJAADD who has run well in defeat on both of his starts in Meydan, beaten just over three lengths by Ahtoug most recently. He has been dropped 2lb for that effort and should be able to make an impact off the same mark that saw him go close in a competitive Doncaster sprint in October. Monsieur Joe was just ahead of the selection that day and rates a solid alternative, while Sholaan, Ninjago and Kernoff also take high rank on the shortlist.
NINJAGO was competitive in good handicaps last season, notably when second to Intrinsic in the Stewards' Cup in August. He has run well fresh previously and this trip on likely fast ground should see him to best effect. A bold show from Ertijaal would not surprise if settling better over 6f while Kernoff comes off a career-best effort and represents a yard that places runners well at Meydan.
LOCAL TIME's terrific attitude was again in evidence in the trial for this contest over 7f three weeks ago, wearing down Ad Idem in the dying strides. Her effort should be marked up given that Mike de Kock's four-year-old was ridden clear at the top of the straight and it has proved difficult to make up ground from the rear on the dirt so far. The step up to a mile will suit and she can confirm herself a very smart sort. Yodelling will find it tough to preserve her unbeaten record on the back of a break, though she is bred to relish this surface and is greatly respected.
YODELLING is unbeaten in 2 starts (both at Kempton) and should take well to dirt given her pedigree. This requires more though she is open to considerable improvement and is worth chancing. The trial here from 3 weeks ago posed more questions than answers; the winner Local Time should make a bold bid but Good Place may get closer if not missing the break this time.
BURNT SUGAR sets a clear form standard on his close fourth in the Jean-Luc Lagardere in October and if he can run to anywhere near that level here, he will take plenty of beating. Forries Waltz has yet to taste defeat and he is entitled to maximum respect for his leading yard. Mastermind was second over 6f here last time and shaped as though he would appreciate the step up to this trip, but he does need to improve for the extra yardage. Volatile has plenty of speed and plenty of ability but he can't be backed while connections persist over this trip, though Zephuros and Horatio Bloom aren't ruled out for each-way purposes.
FORRIES WALTZ is unbeaten in 3 starts in South Africa, including at listed level. He's entitled to need this return, but comes here with a lofty reputation and he is sure to go well. Burnt Sugar has shown form of a similar level and the pair look standouts in a race which lacks depth. Volatile doesn't lack for speed and 7f may stretch him, but he has the ability to be involved if seeing it out.
FAMOUS KID shaped with plenty of promise on his first start since October when second over 1m2f on the dirt track here three weeks ago. Saeed bin Suroor's charge is a dual winner on turf in Britain so is expected to improve for the switch in surface. Ahzeemah has been off the track since finishing second in the Goodwood Cup in the summer and has place claims along with Star Empire, a distance winner here on Tapeta who found 1m2f an insufficient test on his reappearance and will likely appreciate the return to further.
STAR EMPIRE is a model of consistency at Meydan, winning this in 2013 and finishing second 12 months ago. A good third on last month's return will set him up for another bold bid. Rio Tigre is one to consider on debut for Salem Bin Ghadayer, with top weight Ahzeemah completing the shortlist.
AFRICAN STORY landed the Dubai World Cup on Tapeta at last year's Carnival and began his preparations by finishing second in this race. Once again he has an absence to overcome and may not peak until the big day, but he's rated 123 on official figures and if he proves just as effective on dirt then he could prove too strong for today's opposition anyway. Stablemate Prince Bishop had his measure in this race 12 months ago and is another debuting on the new dirt track. Surfer landed Grade 2 honours from Frankyfourfingers here last month but the latter may be able to narrow the gap or even reverse the form now reopposing over this longer trip.
Experience of the Meydan dirt surface could be vital and SURFER has won both starts here so far, including the Al Maktoum Challenge R1 last time. This is tougher, though he may step up his game over this longer trip. Dubai World Cup hero African Story is an obvious player if transferring his Tapeta form onto dirt, likewise Prince Bishop, who took this and also Round 3 at the Carnival last year.
MUSIC THEORY failed to justify favouritism when third over 7f here last month but he is entitled to come on for that run - which was his first since October - and also improve for this step up in distance. Ajeeb found 5f on the sharp side when fourth to Hototo here last month and is interesting now the form of that race has been boosted by the sixth (Ahtoug) winning next time out. This stiffer test could unlock some improvement in Mike De Kock's charge. Our Channel is fitted with first-time cheekpieces and could strip fitter for his last run over 1m1f.
SHORT SQUEEZE is quirky but has bags of ability too and he strikes as a type that will thrive at the Carnival. He was not seen to best effect over 7f last time, though should strip fitter for it and there promises to be more pace to aim at here. Ajeeb caught the eye over 5f last time and should find this more suitable, while Music Theory didn't get the breaks over 7f latest and can be involved.
