Meydan 03 January 2019
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Bin Battuta has been off the track since he finished second in the 2017 Melrose Handicap at York and he should make his mark at the Carnival this year but the 495-day break has to be a concern. With that in mind, the preference has to be for ISPOLINI, who is potentially thrown in off a mark of 105. That is based on his fourth-placed finish in the Chester Vase in May, where he chased home rivals who are now rated 116, 112 and 114. He hasn't been seen since running well enough in a Group 3 in May and he represents a yard who can get one ready first time out at the Carnival. Earnshaw is winless since October 2013 but he often makes the frame in races of this nature, while Syphax should be more at home on this surface having been tried on dirt a couple of times recently.
BIN BATTUTA's well-being is an unknown, but he couldn't be in much better hands and his runner-up effort in the Melrose at York when last seen in 2017 marks him out as well handicapped if he can return at that level. Basateen is a solid opponent, while Ispolini is the potential improver in the race.
DUBAI BEAUTY may have finished seventh when last seen in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on Arc day but she was only two and a quarter lengths behind the winner on that occasion. Stall 12 is a concern but she brings the best form to the table and being out of a Street Cry mare offers hope that she may handle the surface. Nashirah and Swift Rose are others who give Godolphin a strong hand in this contest. Turn 'n Twirl was an impressive winner on her debut at Lingfield two weeks ago and her pedigree suggests that she should be at home on a dirt surface, while Al Shamkhah is the pick of those with previous UAE experience.
DUBAI BEAUTY kept top company last season after her debut win at Newmarket and can't be opposed on the form she has shown. Swift Rose is preferred for the forecast following her easy debut win at Wolverhampton in November, while Nashirah remains open to improvement after just 3 runs.
HIT THE BID is hard to oppose based on his form at this track last season and that includes his decisive defeat of Dutch Masterpiece over C&D in February off just 2lb lower in the ratings. Later in the year the five-year-old finished a close fourth in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh and he was last seen winning a Group 3 at Dundalk, which was the race he used as his prep for the Carnival last season. Faatinah won over 6f off a 2lb higher mark here in 2018 and his has to be respected having won a stakes race in his native Australia last summer. The aforementioned Dutch Masterpiece has an each-way chance with a pipe-opener on the dirt here last month under his belt, while Yard Line is another who could pick up some minor money.
HIT THE BID won a C&D contest from 2 lb lower in February and ended 2018 with a determined success at Dundalk. A prominent display is surely forthcoming and he's marginally preferred to Race Day and Freescape, who both try 5f for the first time.
DRAFTED made a winning seasonal debut over C&D last month in the Garhound Sprint and he had Raven's Corner and High On Life behind him on that occasion. Doug Watson's gelding appears to be improving and he benefitted from a pace collapse last time out, which could happen once again today. It is noteworthy that stable jockey Pat Dobbs rides My Catch but that veteran likes to lead and he will face a tough task to do that with another front runner in High On Life starting from stall 2. If those two take each other on up front then it could be easy for the selection to pick the pair of them off in final couple of furlongs up the long Meydan straight. Above The Rest has the ability to go well but this is his first start on dirt and that has to be a concern, while Raven's Corner is another who could be staying on well at the finish.
DRAFTED took another step forward on this surface when landing a listed race over C&D last month and is narrowly preferred to his returning stablemate My Catch. British raider Above The Rest made a positive return to AW when fourth at Lingfield and his peak form puts him in with a good shout if taking to this new surface.
DEAUVILLE is a proven globetrotter and makes his debut for Fawzi Nass on the back of one his best performances to date when chasing home Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior in the Irish Champion Stakes. That form is more than good enough to win this contest and most of his main rivals have been off the track for longer than him. Saeed bin Suroor won this race with Benbatl 12 months ago and he has an interesting candidate this time around in Dream Castle, who displayed some good form at last season's Carnival and he has been freshened up and gelded since then. Light The Lights won this race in 2017 but he was well held last year and may improve for the run. Key Victory failed to fire when last seen in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot but he had previously run well enough in the French Derby, while his defeat of Old Persian in a Listed race at Newmarket last May is very good form. Degas is a consistent German gelding who merits consideration and Arod is another with valid form claims.
This looks wide open and it may pay to side with a low-mileage sort in the shape of KEY VICTORY. A winner at listed level back in May, he wasn't seen to best effect in the Hampton Court Stakes when last seen in action and he likely has a bigger effort in his locker. Deauville, Degas and Settle For Bay are just a trio of possible threats, however.
TOP SCORE ran well in two handicaps over this C&D at last year's Carnival and that included his victory in March off a 5lb lower mark. He proved that was not a fluke performance by chasing home top-class sprinters Jungle Cat and Ertijaal over an inadequate 6f in a conditions event in March, while the son of Hard Spun chased home a back-to-form Limato off level weights in a Listed event when last seen in the UK at Newmarket in August. Janoobi struggled in the Dubai Turf on his final start of 2018 but his previous form is rock solid and he has to be respected, although he is likely to be better for this run. Another Batt filled fourth place in the Balmoral on his latest outing in October and he could make the frame once again today, while Victory Wave completes the shortlist.
VICTORY WAVE appeals as the type to do well this winter and gets the nod in the finale, though Godolphin’s other representatives Top Score and Aurum are also interesting.
