We started our Hong Kong horses to follow list last season, and I’m pleased to say most on that list went on to be multiple winners. This season I’ve decided to purely concentrate on unexposed types. We have highlighted several debutants and no horse mentioned has had more than four local starts. With local ratings ranging from just 52 to 74, hopefully most of these have a good way to go before reaching their limit.
One criterion that I’ve decided on is not to include any local debutants, even if they have been impressive elsewhere, if they haven’t trialled. It’s not so much to do with wanting to get an indication as to if they have taken to their new surroundings, as it is that most newcomers to Hong Kong have several trials before racing. If they haven’t trialled at time of writing, chances are they are still in an earlier stage of their preparation, and I’m sure no one wants a list of horses to follow that are unlikely to be seen for a while.
All horses included have handicap ratings. Debutants start off on a mark of 52 (fillies 48 but very rare), which puts them into a Class 4 handicap (Classes 1-5).
The standard upper rating limit is as follows:
Class 1 no limit
Class 2 100
Class 3 80
Class 4 60
Class 5 40
However, for those that have raced prior to arriving in Hong Kong there is no set formula. Ratings are allocated based on the HKJC Handicappers assessment of overseas performance.
2024/5 Season Hong Kong Horses To Follow
BEAUTY BOLT (Tony Cruz)
HK rating 74
Prior to finding his way to Hong Kong, Beauty Bolt hacked up (known as Thunder Bolt) on debut over 7 furlongs in a Dundalk maiden on his only start for Joseph O’Brien. The son of Night of Thunder ran with plenty of promise on his local introduction over 7 furlongs in June when runner-up before taking a decent step forward to win on his second and final local start (7 furlongs) the following month with the horse that finished in front of him first-up well beaten in behind. This lightly raced 3yo has plenty of upside, he’s in shrewd hands and should be effective over 6 furlongs to the mile and maybe a tad further in time.
BULB GENERAL (Jamie Richards)
HK Rating 64
A lightly raced 4yo that ran better than the bare result when picking up the bronze on debut at Sha Tin in February, given plenty to do from the outside draw, beaten less than a length by a rival now rated 13lb higher when running off level weights. Unfortunately, he had a colic setback after that and wasn’t seen again until July, winning a 6-furlong Class 4 comfortably, doing his best work late in a race that was run evenly. He looks like he could be one right out off the box and although it’s difficult to predict their ceiling so early in their career, the Jamie Richards inmate, who will get further than 6 furlongs when connections decide to go that way, will kick off the campaign from toward the bottom half of a Class 3 handicap, which should be well within his scope.
CIRCUIT GRAND SLAM (Manfred Man)
HK Rating 71
Formerly known as Tunbridge Wells when with Aidan O’Brien, he was an impressive winner of a 6-furlong juvenile maiden at the Curragh before being the choice of Ryan Moore when a beaten favourite behind the stable companion, Henri Matisse, in the Railway Stakes on rain affected going in June of last year. He was gelded in October and did have a setback (fore fetlock) in May this year, thus we haven’t seen him for a long time, and he may need a run or two to come to the boil. However, he was afforded an official rating of 101 when with Ballydoyle, thus his opening local mark of 71 looks more than workable if they can keep him healthy. Being a son of No Nay Never, he should enjoy the quicker ground in Hong Kong and whilst Coolmore don’t let too many ‘good ones’ go, there have been several success stories, with the once conqueror of Romantic Warrior, and international winner, Russian Emperor being the standout.
FRIENDS OF SHAJING (Danny Shum)
HK Rating 67
The Danny Shum inmate was purchased out of Ireland where he won a 6-furlong maiden at the Curragh for Michael O’Callghan last August (known as Distant Seas). He made his local debut nearly 11 months later, running better than the bare result when fourth over 5 furlongs in a punchy Class 3 at Happy Valley having been dropped out to last, with the rider called in by stewards for a ‘please explain’. He was given an official rating of 95 in Ireland, which should see him hugely competitive from his current Hong Kong mark of 67. Although turned over on his local debut, he showed enough that night to suggest he will take to Hong Kong, which is not always a given, and he’ll be better suited to 6 furlongs, and the larger layout of Sha Tin would probably help further.
JUSTIFYING (Caspar Fownes)
HK Rating 62
The son of Justify is probably the riskiest suggestion on our list given he has bombed in his last three starts having won on debut down the straight 5-furlong course at Sha Tin in March. Although hugely disappointing in his last three, including when turned over as a 1/5 favourite, we know he has a hell of an engine when he puts in all together, and whilst you don’t want to say it, you just hope a solvable issue was the catalyst of those last three spins. His debut win had everything you want to see in a potential topliner, he obliterated the clock, he obliterated the opposition, and the two placegetters came out and won at their very next start. He will be a bit of a swing, but they don’t fluke what he did on debut, and he would make short work of his current mark if able to replicate the talent he showed that day.
LITTLE PARADISE (Jimmy Ting)
HK Rating 70
Little Parade made his debut in March, winning his first two starts over 6 furlongs before an unplaced effort at his first try in a Class 3 when a beaten a favourite. However, he had genuine excuses that evening, having been slow to break and knocked sideways by a rival. He was last seen in July when runner-up, but again he didn’t have the rub of the green, badly crowded out of the stalls before short for room in the straight, rattling late to be beaten a nose, a race he most certainly would have won with an ounce of luck. The Jimmy Ting 4yo is by Toronado, a sire that has had plenty of success in Hong Kong. Little Parade is a big lump of a horse (1226lb when last seen), and those types tend to improve for a bit of experience and although he goes up 3lb for finishing second last time, there should still be room to manoeuvre from his current mark.
LUCKY MY WAY (Manfred Man)
HK Rating 68
The Manfred Man inmate is a low mileage 4yo that showed very little on debut in March before a much better effort when picking up the bronze over 6 furlongs in April on his second start, albeit, well held by the first two. However, despite the promising performance, punters let him go off around at 25/1 when he broke his duck in good style at start three, coming from near last to win running away. He was last seen in June when completing back-to-back wins in similar style from the top of a Class 4 handicap, conceding 13lb to the runner-up. The handicapper has bumped him up 8lb for that, meaning he will commence the campaign in Class 3 company, but he’s a promising type that looked better every time he stepped out last season, and whilst he’s yet to go beyond 6 furlongs, a trip he looks suited to when a solid gallop is on offer, given the way he closes out his races, he’ll probably be tried over further soon enough.
LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC (Chris So)
HK Rating 61
Now a 4yo, despite nothing in the veterinarian history, the Chris So inmate has only had the one start to date, but it soon became apparent why connections had been so patient when he cruised to victory over 5 furlongs down the straight course at Sha Tin in June. He had trailed in impressive style prior to that, but trial form doesn’t always stack up on race day; however, they knew that had a good one on their hands as he went off a red-hot favourite. The winning margin of two-lengths is hardly a true reflection of how much authority he displayed that day, winning eased down with the rider doing very little, and the performance was backed up on the clock. The handicapper has lumped him 9lb for the win, but it’s impossible to argue against, and although he’ll be seen in Class 3 company on his return, he looks headed for higher grades, and provided he gets around a bend, he’ll be just as effective if not more so over 6 furlongs.
NOVA KNIGHT (David Hayes)
HK Rating 65
Yet to be sighted in Hong Kong, Nova Knight is a twice raced 3yo that won a 7-furlong maiden on his second and final start at Sale in Australia in February when a warm favourite. Whilst we are yet to see him on the local front, he did win a 5-furlong trial here in July, which is the only time he’s been seen in public. The trial was a three-runner contest against two unraced rivals, but he moved nicely, picking up strongly when asked. On pedigree he should make into a sprinter, but as a 7-furlong winner on his second start they may look at starting him off over shorter trips before stretching out to the mile. However, whilst we won’t attempt to second guess the connections plans, his trainer, David Hayes, is very good at having them ready to roll first-up.
OWNERS SUNSHINE (Chris So)
HK Rating 52
Being a debutant, Owners Sunshine will commence his career in Class 4 company off the standard introductory mark of 52, a mark that is usually accounted for quickly by individuals with above average ability. The Chris So 4yo is a late starter with no vet history, but he has been seen at the trials, winning his last two at Conghua, the most recent of which was in June when he showed natural pace, going on to win by three lengths against seasoned rivals. He’s by a sire (Proisir) that has had ten individual winners in Hong Kong, ranging in trips from 5 to 9 furlongs and whilst there is always some uncertainty attached to flagging up debutants based on trials, this fellow looks like he could be winning soon enough.
REFUSETOBEENGLISH (Pierre Ng)
HK Rating 68
The Pierre Ng 4yo was purchased out of Australia after a facile win in a valuable 6-furlong ($150k Aus) handicap at Cranbourne last November, which has been his only start to date. It’s worth noting he had a last start winner in second that day, giving the form a bit of shape. Whilst he hasn’t been seen since, he has been in Hong Kong for some time now, having had his first track gallop back in February. The son of Churchill has had six local trials with the most visually impressive being his most recent when he came from well off the pace to run second over 6 furlongs to a low mileage maiden that was only beaten a lip when last seen on race day. He will start his Hong Kong career from a mark of 68, which will see him in Class 3 company, which is no easy task, but he set a good impression in Australia and connections have brought him along with plenty of patience.
STANLEY EXPRESS (Pierre Ng)
HK Rating 68
Another that has been in Hong Kong for some time but not yet seen on race day, Stanley Express has been given plenty of time to settle in. Originally from Australia, he caught the eye on debut when coming from well off the pace to win a valuable ($1-million Aus) sales race at Caufield in April of 2024. He wasn’t seen again until September, beaten panels when very much on the sharp end of the betting, a run simply too bad to be true, which is backed up by the lengthy subsequent absence. However, he’s been in work since March, having had his first gallop in April, and he now has three trials under his belt, the last two of which he’s won. Trials are just that, but he did win a trial at Sha Tin in July when pitched in against some above average sorts. He's by Starspangledbanner, who has produced winners up to 9 furlongs in Hong Kong, including the brilliant recently retried, California Spangle, and whilst this fellow will probably start off over a similar trip to what he won over in Australia, given the way he closed out that day, he may be effective over a bit further in time.
