Meydan 04 March 2017
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COSMO CHARLIE didn't appreciate more waiting tactics when sixth behind the impressive Thunder Snow in the UAE 2000 Guineas and a more positive ride should see Doug Watson's charge to best effect on the evidence of his effort the time before behind Fly At Dawn. Nobelium is capable of further improvement for a step up in trip, while stable companions Capezzano and Somerset House complete the shortlist.
ZUMURUDEE has to prove himself on dirt, though impressed when winning a Wolverhampton maiden by 10 lengths on his latest start and there's plenty of hope about him getting the trip and handling the surface based on pedigree. Fawree looks potentially smart and could be too good, but has been done no favours by the draw, similarly Capezzano but both are still worth plenty of respect for top yards.
The ever reliable veteran Reynaldothewizard took yet another C&D success in January when seeing off MUARRAB in tenacious style and yet another bold bid is expected from Satish Seemar's stable star. That said, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see that form overturned by Maria Ritchie's son of Oasis Dream as his campaign has steadily built up towards World Cup night and he should also reverse form with Cool Cowboy from last time. Cool Cowboy found the drop in distance no issue to him on that occasion and is respected once again.
REYNALDOTHEWIZARD looked virtually as good as ever as an 11-y-o when running down Muarrab on return in January and it looks a positive that he's been kept fresh since. The latter won this and the Golden Shaheen last year, meaning he rates the one to beat still despite a wide draw. Cool Cowboy also just finished ahead of Muarrab last time and should give another good account.
Rarely do we see top class colts return season after season so it is great to see POSTPONED back for another campaign which leads again towards the Sheema Classic. On the whole his 2016 season was almost perfection, apart from a rare blip in the Arc de Triomphe where he didn't run his race when fifth behind Found, and he proved himself to be tactically versatile in being able to handle the drop back to 1m2f at the highest level when landing the Juddmonte International at York last August. It would be disappointing were he not able to win comfortably and he is reunited with his York pacemaker King Bolete who should ensure an even tempo throughout. Prize Money is progressive and is well worth a go at this level but will require a career best and more to topple the selection, while Emotionless showed signs of life on dirt last month and could potentially relish the extra two furlongs back on turf.
POSTPONED hasn't been since since disappointing in the Arc, but had previously completed a six-timer which included this race and four Group 1's, and he should prove too strong for this opposition before aiming to retain his Sheema Classic crown. Prize Money has posted some huge efforts off big weights in handicaps and looks the clear one to chase him home, while Emotionless can prove next best.
Since her surprise reverse in the UAE Derby last March, Polar River has struggled and now has questions to answer. Heavy Metal has enjoyed a profitable carnival thus far and is expected to go well again, but preference is for LE BERNARDIN. A wide draw over this 1m trip on Dirt isn't always a bad one and if the eight-year-old can bounce out quickly from stall 10, he can get across to the fence, or at least to a position from which he can strike, and is no stranger to success over C&D. He came up short in round two of the Al Maktoum Challenge but was most impressive in round one in January and the return to this distance could spark a rejuvenated effort.
HEAVY METAL has thrived on a busy campaign and proved better than ever when making all in a C&D handicap last time. He's doesn't have North America to worry about here and is well drawn, so ought to be right in the mix. Le Bernardin will appreciate the return to 1m and rates the clear main threat, while Stormardal, Lindo Amor and Nathr look most likely to fight out minor honours.
Charlie Appleby launches a two-pronged assault and it would be surprising if he didn't land the spoils. Baccarat beat JUNGLE CAT (second) by a neck in a handicap over C&D in January but the latter took a huge step forward for that outing and finished second behind the win machine that is Ertijaal on his very next outing. The selection had to concede 2lb to Baccarat in the handicap first time up and off level weights this time around, he can reverse the form. Final Venture is two wins from three starts at the Carnival this year but finished behind the Godolphin pair two starts back, while The Right Man is another to consider.
FINAL VENTURE has already proved a fine purchase for connections after winning two Carnival handicaps, the latest 3 weeks ago, and he's sure to go well again in a wide-open sprint. He's closely matched with the Godolphin pair of Jungle Cat and Baccarat, who fought out the finish to a C&D handicap in January, but progressive French raider The Right Man is the potential unknown quantity on return.
Lani caused an upset on Dubai World Cup night 12 months ago when beating Polar River in the UAE Derby and could be rejuvenated back in the desert. The booking of Ryan Moore screams confidence and he joins Furia Cruzada, winner of round two of the Al Maktoum Challenge at the expense of the reopposing Second Summer, on the shortlist. Move Up was highly progressive last year and is the most interesting of these, though he is unproven on Dirt and has an absence to overcome. SPECIAL FIGHTER could be the one to be on, as he absolutely dotted up in this race 12 months ago and proved that was no fluke when running well in defeat behind California Chrome in the aforementioned main event three weeks later.
FURIA CRUZADA and Second Summer were both making their UAE debuts when they fought out a very narrow finish to R2 of the series, and though there is a clear case that Second Summer can overturn the form, there's essentially little between them and the former is narrowly preferred again. Last year's winner Special Fighter makes a belated return, while Lani and Move Up are also of some interest.
It has been a brilliant carnival for team Godolphin but if Folkswood, who represents last year's winning trainer/jockey combination, or Promising Run, are to sport the famous royal blue silks to success in the finale they will both need to step up. Similar sentiments apply to the majority of these runners, so DECORATED KNIGHT gets a tentative vote by default. Roger Charlton's inmate improved markedly last year and overcame a long absence to beat Arab Spring in the Listed Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield. Muffri'Ha was involved in a pace burn up with Very Special in the Balanchine latest and paid for that late on. An improved performance from William Haggas' charge looks assured, while Ertijaal is another who could make the frame.
FOLKSWOOD is taking a big leap from handicaps to the highest level, but this is essentially only a Group 1 by name and he impressed enough over C&D last time to suggest he's a big player here despite a wide stall. Roger Charlton's Decorated Knight is improving and still unexposed after just 11 career starts, while Muffri'ha has twice run well against her own sex this Carnival and can do so again.
